The YSR Earthquake and Aftermath Power Games

Dr. YSR's tragic and untimely death, at the height of his power, is an earthquake in AP politics with a significant impact in New Delhi. The news analysis pouring in have rightly pointed out the huge leadership hole left in AP congress's eternally divided family. Dr. YSR with his dynamism, shrewdness, and the common man's touch sidelined his opposition within the party, and delivered the goods to Congress high command, but what next? The vested interest in the party and outside the party want YSR's son YS JaganMohan Reddy to take the mantle, and one of the key person who seems to behind this move is KVP Ramachandra Rao, who will also be the man behind YS Jagan if he get the CM's chair. The image of a standing KVP behind YS Jagan's appeal to the public and congress followers to maintain calm and be bold in the face of tragedy was a clear and conspicuous message of his presence, and say in the post YSR power games. Would Congress president Sonia Gandhi fall for the pressure brought on her by YSR's supporters who want YS Jagan as the CM, or will she choose someone outside this group. The YS Jagan lobby is strong in the elected congress assembly members and MPs, but there are equally powerful, senior, experienced, shrewed detractors who are already pointing YS Jagan's inexperience in the rough and hard politics of AP, and lack of governance and policy knowledge. So whom will Sonia choose? will she go with the emotional route, or will she avoid the emotional trap as she and has her son has set the example. The best option in this tragic and complex situation may be to continue with current CM K Rosiah until a consensus is evolved and emotions have calmed down, and to mollify YS Jagan's supporters, he can be accommodated in the central as a state minister. K Rosiah has already indicated he is not averse to continue, as he said that there is no such thing as a caretaker CM in the Indian constitution. After an year or two K Rosiah can sidestep or retire expressing his old age, paving way to the person whom Sonia wants to deliver her 2014, and the necessary goods of politics. It could be YS Jagan or anybody else, depending how each one plays his cards from now until then. If YS Jagan is made the CM at this point then for a while there could be a pause in the attacks from opposition because of the sympathy factor, but pretty soon the opposition could end up with the upper hand, and the perpetual infighting in the congress could be a perennial news on the front pages of the media. But, the current situation, ironically, is the most propitious for YS Jagan to press for his case. Once this moment passes away who knows what's in store for future. Sonia'll be thinking how to counter the formidable CBN and TDP, Telangana forces, and other detractors who do not spare the smallest opportunity to pounce and belittle the govt. She'll be also worrying on how to keep her flock together, as there is a very plausible case of 30 to 40 MLAs belonging to any faction, walking out and forming a govt with opposition support. Then there is Chiranjeevi, who can see the post YSR gap to salvage his sagging image and party. There is also a wild possibility of Chiranjeevi merging his party with Congress, if he is offered the plum post of CM or something at the center, remember Narayan Rane in Maharashtra was lured from Shiv Sena with this pretext, it is another thing that it did not work out. Even if not now, may be after 2 years or before 2014, depending how Chiranjeevi fares until then. The biggest looser of the current tragedy in political terms is Roja, what a inopportune political timing. Vijayashanti is less impacted, as she can go to any party, as she has a standing and an image of her own. Then there're YSR loyalists, ministers, MLAs and politicians who wanted to switch parties, businessmen, and industrialists whose fate was directly linked to YSR. An iron ore mining baron was trying to get central bailout funds via YSR to save his business from the global recession, realtors lobby and Rayalseema lobby had a free hand in many affairs. The state of AP is also a looser in the significant future, as there is no strong voice from the state which could influence the center, so don't be surprised if plum projects are taken away by other states in the process of competition. The political situation is rapidly evolving, and will be interesting to watch, as indian politics as always are. Written By Shalivahana